대광고 영어 · 확신도·근거 검산 5문항 · 모의고사형

An experienced weather observer recognizes a familiar cloud pattern and expects rain. Her confidence comes partly from years of seeing similar skies. On this occasion, however, a wind shift has brought dry air into the region. She lowers the probability in her forecast rather than defending the first impression. Experience is valuable because it supplies patterns, but a pattern is useful only when the present case shares the conditions that made it predictive before. Confidence should therefore respond to evidence that changes those conditions. Revising a forecast is not necessarily a sign that expertise has failed. It may show expertise at work: the observer distinguishes a strong initial cue from a complete assessment and allows new information to alter the weight assigned to that cue.

An experienced weather observer recognizes a familiar cloud pattern and expects rain. Her confidence comes partly from years of seeing similar skies. On this occasion, however, a wind shift has brought dry air into the region. She lowers the probability in her forecast rather than defending the first impression. Experience is valuable because it supplies patterns, but a pattern is useful only when the present case shares the conditions that made it predictive before. Confidence should therefore respond to evidence that changes those conditions. Revising a forecast is not necessarily a sign that expertise has failed. It may show expertise at work: the observer distinguishes a strong initial cue from a complete assessment and allows new information to alter the weight assigned to that cue.

An experienced weather observer recognizes a familiar cloud pattern and expects rain. Her confidence comes partly from years of seeing similar skies. On this occasion, however, a wind shift has brought dry air into the region. She lowers the probability in her forecast rather than defending the first impression. Experience is valuable because it supplies patterns, but a pattern is useful only when the present case shares the conditions that made it predictive before. Confidence should therefore respond to evidence that changes those conditions. Revising a forecast is not necessarily a sign that expertise has failed. It may show expertise at work: the observer distinguishes a strong initial cue from a complete assessment and allows new information to alter the weight assigned to that cue.

An experienced weather observer recognizes a familiar cloud pattern and expects rain. Her confidence comes partly from years of seeing similar skies. On this occasion, however, a wind shift has brought dry air into the region. She lowers the probability in her forecast rather than defending the first impression. Experience is valuable because it supplies patterns, but a pattern is useful only when the present case shares the conditions that made it predictive before. Confidence should therefore respond to evidence that changes those conditions. Revising a forecast is not necessarily a sign that expertise has failed. It may show expertise at work: the observer distinguishes a strong initial cue from a complete assessment and allows new information to alter the weight assigned to that cue.

An experienced weather observer recognizes a familiar cloud pattern and expects rain. Her confidence comes partly from years of seeing similar skies. On this occasion, however, a wind shift has brought dry air into the region. She lowers the probability in her forecast rather than defending the first impression. Experience is valuable because it supplies patterns, but a pattern is useful only when the present case shares the conditions that made it predictive before. Confidence should therefore respond to evidence that changes those conditions. Revising a forecast is not necessarily a sign that expertise has failed. It may show expertise at work: the observer distinguishes a strong initial cue from a complete assessment and allows new information to alter the weight assigned to that cue.