대광고 영어 · 시험 적중 근거 구분 5문항 · 모의고사형

A financial commentator selects three forecasts she made that turned out correctly and presents them as evidence of exceptional accuracy. Her archive contains many other forecasts, including several that failed, but these are absent from the presentation. The selected successes are real; the problem is the inference drawn from them. To estimate reliability, a reader needs a defined set of predictions and a consistent rule for judging each outcome. Otherwise, a large collection of attempts can yield an impressive-looking selection even when the overall record is ordinary. Evidence of some success is not yet evidence of a high success rate. A fair account makes the denominator visible and applies the same standard to misses as to hits, rather than allowing memorable examples to stand in for a complete evaluation.

A financial commentator selects three forecasts she made that turned out correctly and presents them as evidence of exceptional accuracy. Her archive contains many other forecasts, including several that failed, but these are absent from the presentation. The selected successes are real; the problem is the inference drawn from them. To estimate reliability, a reader needs a defined set of predictions and a consistent rule for judging each outcome. Otherwise, a large collection of attempts can yield an impressive-looking selection even when the overall record is ordinary. Evidence of some success is not yet evidence of a high success rate. A fair account makes the denominator visible and applies the same standard to misses as to hits, rather than allowing memorable examples to stand in for a complete evaluation.

A financial commentator selects three forecasts she made that turned out correctly and presents them as evidence of exceptional accuracy. Her archive contains many other forecasts, including several that failed, but these are absent from the presentation. The selected successes are real; the problem is the inference drawn from them. To estimate reliability, a reader needs a defined set of predictions and a consistent rule for judging each outcome. Otherwise, a large collection of attempts can yield an impressive-looking selection even when the overall record is ordinary. Evidence of some success is not yet evidence of a high success rate. A fair account makes the denominator visible and applies the same standard to misses as to hits, rather than allowing memorable examples to stand in for a complete evaluation.

A financial commentator selects three forecasts she made that turned out correctly and presents them as evidence of exceptional accuracy. Her archive contains many other forecasts, including several that failed, but these are absent from the presentation. The selected successes are real; the problem is the inference drawn from them. To estimate reliability, a reader needs a defined set of predictions and a consistent rule for judging each outcome. Otherwise, a large collection of attempts can yield an impressive-looking selection even when the overall record is ordinary. Evidence of some success is not yet evidence of a high success rate. A fair account makes the denominator visible and applies the same standard to misses as to hits, rather than allowing memorable examples to stand in for a complete evaluation.

A financial commentator selects three forecasts she made that turned out correctly and presents them as evidence of exceptional accuracy. Her archive contains many other forecasts, including several that failed, but these are absent from the presentation. The selected successes are real; the problem is the inference drawn from them. To estimate reliability, a reader needs a defined set of predictions and a consistent rule for judging each outcome. Otherwise, a large collection of attempts can yield an impressive-looking selection even when the overall record is ordinary. Evidence of some success is not yet evidence of a high success rate. A fair account makes the denominator visible and applies the same standard to misses as to hits, rather than allowing memorable examples to stand in for a complete evaluation.