예비 고3 · 한 번의 모의고사로 전향 판단하지 않기 5문항 · 모의고사형

A vineyard produces an unusually sweet harvest after a dry summer. Its owner considers replacing all the vines with the same variety. A consultant asks whether the result reflects the variety, the weather, the soil, or an interaction among them. One successful season cannot reveal how the vines would perform in a wet year or on a different slope. The consultant recommends retaining comparison rows and observing several seasons before making an irreversible change. This is not a refusal to use the good result. It is a way to learn what the result can support. A striking outcome can justify further investigation without justifying the largest possible commitment. Decisions should distinguish evidence that a possibility is promising from evidence that it is robust across the conditions the decision will have to survive.

A vineyard produces an unusually sweet harvest after a dry summer. Its owner considers replacing all the vines with the same variety. A consultant asks whether the result reflects the variety, the weather, the soil, or an interaction among them. One successful season cannot reveal how the vines would perform in a wet year or on a different slope. The consultant recommends retaining comparison rows and observing several seasons before making an irreversible change. This is not a refusal to use the good result. It is a way to learn what the result can support. A striking outcome can justify further investigation without justifying the largest possible commitment. Decisions should distinguish evidence that a possibility is promising from evidence that it is robust across the conditions the decision will have to survive.

A vineyard produces an unusually sweet harvest after a dry summer. Its owner considers replacing all the vines with the same variety. A consultant asks whether the result reflects the variety, the weather, the soil, or an interaction among them. One successful season cannot reveal how the vines would perform in a wet year or on a different slope. The consultant recommends retaining comparison rows and observing several seasons before making an irreversible change. This is not a refusal to use the good result. It is a way to learn what the result can support. A striking outcome can justify further investigation without justifying the largest possible commitment. Decisions should distinguish evidence that a possibility is promising from evidence that it is robust across the conditions the decision will have to survive.

A vineyard produces an unusually sweet harvest after a dry summer. Its owner considers replacing all the vines with the same variety. A consultant asks whether the result reflects the variety, the weather, the soil, or an interaction among them. One successful season cannot reveal how the vines would perform in a wet year or on a different slope. The consultant recommends retaining comparison rows and observing several seasons before making an irreversible change. This is not a refusal to use the good result. It is a way to learn what the result can support. A striking outcome can justify further investigation without justifying the largest possible commitment. Decisions should distinguish evidence that a possibility is promising from evidence that it is robust across the conditions the decision will have to survive.

A vineyard produces an unusually sweet harvest after a dry summer. Its owner considers replacing all the vines with the same variety. A consultant asks whether the result reflects the variety, the weather, the soil, or an interaction among them. One successful season cannot reveal how the vines would perform in a wet year or on a different slope. The consultant recommends retaining comparison rows and observing several seasons before making an irreversible change. This is not a refusal to use the good result. It is a way to learn what the result can support. A striking outcome can justify further investigation without justifying the largest possible commitment. Decisions should distinguish evidence that a possibility is promising from evidence that it is robust across the conditions the decision will have to survive.